Well, here we are again, Browns fans…the offseason, featuring free agency and our de facto Super Bowl, the NFL Draft. And let’s first remind all the newcomers of two things: (1) that it is way too early to be guessing as to what the Browns will do when late April rolls around, and (2) I’m not a reporter. I don’t have “sources” that are unavailable to anyone here. In short, I know absolutely nothing. (It almost sounds like a negative, no?) But in this case, ignorance is blissfully liberating, and it frees me to speculate and ponder to my heart’s desire based solely on the things I’ve seen for myself, and things I’ve heard, read or seen from folks I trust. Add a touch of philosophical analysis (read: total guesswork), and you’ve got something. What it is, I have no idea.
TEAM NEEDS
Let’s start with…everything. I’m serious. They still need everything. They could go in any direction at any time and I doubt I would really question it. This front office drafted quite well the first two years, so I’m likely to be comfortable with just about any decisions made this time around, and I’m excited to see it all shake out. Now to the obvious fire starter.
QUARTERBACK
The amount of Browns QB-related discussion and tweetage of late is incredible. Strong opinions abound, and run the range from “Colt is a scrappy winner, and if you’d just protect him better and get him some receivers he’d be more than adequate” to “Colt is scrappy and a winner, but will never take you to a Super Bowl” to “I have serious concerns that McCoy can’t make all the throws, panics under pressure, isn’t quite as accurate as his college stats suggested, and seems frail enough to be regularly broken” to “McCoy sucks. Why can’t you people get it through your heads?”
Personally, my gauge right now is somewhere between “scrappy, winner, but…” and “serious concerns.” I think Holmgren, Heckert & Shurmur like the kid, but can’t possibly be convinced that he’s The Guy.
Until further notice, therefore, the Browns still need a quarterback. There are a couple of free agent possibilities. I don’t expect Matt Flynn to be franchised (the new CBA dissuades teams from franchising players merely to trade them, and if you franchise Matt Flynn for $14 Million, what are you telling Aaron Rodgers (who will make $8 Million in 2012) to ask for come contract time? Flynn will be available but I anticipate someone will pay him like a guaranteed starter. I suspect it will not be the Browns. I couldn’t fault them for being interested. But I’d be hesitant for all the obvious reasons. The Browns aren’t the Packers, Flynn was a 7th rounder, Kevin Kolb, etc. I wonder about New England’s Brian Hoyer, as well.
The Walrus & Mr. Heckles have some ammunition. Will they pull the trigger?
Now, the juicy stuff. Let me make it clear: I would trade a lot for Andrew Luck. I’d give up both 1′s. But not much more. And I suspect much more would be required. If they can get him at a price they can live with, it’s a no-brainer. I put the odds of this at about 5%. Which leaves us Robert Griffin III. I’m running out of reasons not to think that he’s the right pick at 4, but that I wouldn’t pay the required price to move up to get him. Granting all positive praise ahead of time- because the guy is an incredible talent- I see two obvious concerns. First, he is reckless as an open field runner, and that will get him killed in the NFL unless he significantly modifies it. By way of example, Michael Vick has never totally exorcised his willingness to put himself at risk, and has paid for it. Griffin has similar tendencies. Second, it would represent another “starting over” point for the new regime, and though it would be exciting, one has to assume it would take Griffin some time to learn. The Cam Newton comparison is a lazy one for multiple reasons, but the biggest is that Rob Chudzinski’s system bears little resemblance to Pat Shurmur’s.
At least for the moment, I don’t get the sense from the Walrus, Mr. Heckles or the people covering the team that I’ve grown to trust that the Browns are ready to give up an opportunity to fill multiple holes. Which I suspect will be their first preference. In all seriousness: there would be nothing wrong with trading down and fixing RT, OLB, WR and something else and letting McCoy have another crack at it. Some would look at it as another failure by the Browns to add the critical QB piece, but I trust this current group. If they think it’s time to go get the QB and the guy they like is there, they’ll do it. If they don’t do it, I assume it’s because they feel it isn’t time or they don’t like anybody enough. I can live with any of these results in part because I have some measure of faith in McCoy to improve sufficiently to progress with the team in 2012 with Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson and others awaiting in 2013.
MUST ADDRESS
Right Offensive Tackle: The Browns brass might- and I stress “might”- be able to convince me that Tony Pashos is a passable right tackle when healthy. But they will never convince me that he is remotely likely to meet that contingency more than 50% of the time. And he’s 32. More importantly, I want a total mauler over there. There are a number of ways to address the position. They could draft someone (probably not at 4). Maybe they see Jason Pinkston as the long-term answer there. If so, it would be totally reasonable to me if a key veteran free agent guard or a top draft prospect like Stanford’s David DeCastro would be in their sights. There is nothing wrong with having way too much talent and depth on the offensive line. I’m in favor, actually.
Wide Receiver: Again. Or is it “Still?” Whatever. Greg Little showed a ton of promise and Josh Cribbs flashed again, but the cupboard still appears relatively bare. Before you ask, I’m not very far down the line in my research, but I like Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright a lot. Sen Dog is a huge Alshon Jeffrey guy. Shameless plug for a bunch of hardworking dudes: the guys on the NFL DRAFT SICKNESS TWITTER LIST will hook me up with tons of reviews, information and videos to help me sift through it all.
Running Back: Peyton Hillis won’t be back. You can mark that one. Trent Richardson is a reasonable take at 4, though it’d be more appealing to take him after a slight trade down. There are several quality prospects later in the draft like Miami’s Lamar Miller and Washington’s Chris Polk (Sickness Approved!).
Linebacker: One of the Browns’ biggest issues is a dearth of team speed, and nowhere did this hurt them in 2012 more than at linebacker. Whether they slide D’Qwell Jackson outside or find someone to play outside, a quality addition, and preferably two, to the linebacking corps is a must.
Right Defensive End: Turns out Jayme Mitchell was killing second-teamers in that YouTube video because they were second-teamers. Who would’ve guessed?
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In addition to the above, critical depth is needed along both lines and cornerback, because you simply can’t have too many of any of those guys. With reports that the Browns will be a little more active this year in free agency, we should be able to get a sense of what they intend to do in the draft in mid March. Hopefully after a fun acquisition or two.
