OTA's, ADP's & UDFA's. Training Camp Can't Come Soon Enough.
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…and THIS is why.
This guy could have a big year.
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Let’s get down (South).
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Joey Porter: SICKNESS APPROVED.
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A daily link spewage. The SICK LINKS.
This article is a guest post by the Fantasy Douche. You can follow the Fantasy Douche on Twitter where he is simply @FantasyDouche. You can also find him on his website where he writes about fantasy football and real football. Lastly, you can check out his book “Game Plan: A Radical Approach to Decision Making in the NFL” on Amazon.
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Greg Little is the kind of wide receiver that presents the age old question of whether teams should be drafting physical specimens (who might learn to play wide receiver) or whether they should instead be selecting accomplished college wide receivers. Little was certainly a physical specimen coming out of North Carolina, but he wasn’t much of an accomplished wide receiver.
When the Browns took Little in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, they were looking at a receiver that had many of the physical traits of Andre Johnson, but no college record that would make teams comfortable. Little was close to 230 pounds and yet still ran extremely well at the 2011 Combine. But Little’s best college season had been a little over 700 yards with 5 touchdowns. Because he was a converted running back, Little wasn’t giving pro scouts much of a resume to look at. The Browns didn’t know at the time whether they were wasting a draft pick, or getting an extreme bargain. Either outcome is within the range of possibilities.
It’s much too early to pass any judgment on the Browns’ experiment with Little, but we can look at Little’s rookie season and compare it to other similar seasons to see if it tells us anything about what Little’s future might be.
The below table contains the 20 most similar receiver seasons to Greg Little’s 2011 campaign. Note that I said receiver and not wide receiver. That’s because rather than breaking comparisons off at position, I use things like height and weight to make comparisons. The list of comparable receivers is interesting to say the least. The list of similar players has been created in much the same way that Pandora determines which music is similar to a song that you like. I look at things like height, age, weight and receiving stats in the same way that Pandora looks at things like percussion and major key tonality.
Greg Little (2011) Similar Seasons (All Per Game Numbers Based on Games Receiver Had > 0 Catches)
| SubjectPlayer | Year | Tm | Age | Wt | Ht | G | Rec/G | Y/G | TD/G | YPR |
| Greg Little |
2011 |
CLE |
22 |
220 |
75 |
15 |
4.1 | 47.3 | 0.13 | 11.6 |
| Similar Players | Year | Tm | Age | Wt | Ht | G | Rec/G | Y/G | TD/G | YPR |
| FRANK SANDERS |
1996 |
ARI |
23 |
215 |
74 |
16 |
4.3 | 50.8 | 0.25 | 11.8 |
| SHANNON SHARPE |
1992 |
DEN |
24 |
228 |
74 |
13 |
4.1 | 49.2 | 0.15 | 12.1 |
| JOHNNY MITCHELL |
1994 |
NYJ |
23 |
241 |
75 |
15 |
3.9 | 49.9 | 0.27 | 12.9 |
| BRANDON GIBSON |
2010 |
STL |
23 |
204 |
73 |
14 |
3.8 | 44.3 | 0.14 | 11.7 |
| MIKE WILLIAMS |
2011 |
TB |
24 |
204 |
74 |
15 |
4.3 | 51.4 | 0.20 | 11.9 |
| REGGIE WILLIAMS |
2006 |
JAX |
23 |
225 |
76 |
15 |
3.5 | 41.1 | 0.27 | 11.8 |
| RONALD CURRY |
2006 |
OAK |
27 |
220 |
74 |
15 |
4.1 | 48.5 | 0.07 | 11.7 |
| DONALD HAYES |
2001 |
CAR |
26 |
220 |
76 |
15 |
3.5 | 39.8 | 0.13 | 11.5 |
| ANDRE JOHNSON |
2003 |
HOU |
22 |
219 |
75 |
16 |
4.1 | 61.0 | 0.25 | 14.8 |
| BRYANT JOHNSON |
2004 |
ARI |
23 |
214 |
74 |
14 |
3.5 | 38.4 | 0.07 | 11.0 |
| J.J. STOKES |
1997 |
SF |
25 |
218 |
76 |
15 |
3.9 | 48.9 | 0.27 | 12.6 |
| KEVIN WALTER |
2009 |
HOU |
28 |
221 |
75 |
14 |
3.8 | 43.6 | 0.14 | 11.5 |
| OWEN DANIELS |
2007 |
HOU |
25 |
245 |
75 |
16 |
3.9 | 48.0 | 0.19 | 12.2 |
| KEVIN WALTER |
2007 |
HOU |
26 |
221 |
75 |
15 |
4.3 | 53.3 | 0.27 | 12.3 |
| SYLVESTER MORRIS |
2000 |
KC |
23 |
206 |
75 |
15 |
3.2 | 45.2 | 0.20 | 14.1 |
| JORDY NELSON |
2010 |
GB |
25 |
215 |
75 |
15 |
3.0 | 38.8 | 0.13 | 12.9 |
| EARL BENNETT |
2009 |
CHI |
22 |
205 |
73 |
16 |
3.4 | 44.8 | 0.13 | 13.3 |
| RANDY MCMICHAEL |
2003 |
MIA |
24 |
250 |
75 |
15 |
3.3 | 39.9 | 0.13 | 12.2 |
| DEZ WHITE |
2003 |
CHI |
24 |
215 |
73 |
15 |
3.3 | 38.9 | 0.20 | 11.9 |
| MICHAEL CRABTREE |
2009 |
SF |
22 |
215 |
74 |
11 |
4.4 | 56.8 | 0.18 | 13.0 |
| Averages | 24.0 | 219.8 | 74.6 | 14.7 | 3.7 | 46.4 | 0.2 | 12.4 |
Note that while individual players might differ in some way from Little, the average numbers are extremely close to Little’s 2011. It might be appropriate to say that in considering Little’s future, the most likely outcome is the average of all of these players.
But that’s no fun, so let’s look at some individual names. The list contains some extremely encouraging names for Browns fans… and some not so encouraging. Andre Johnson is on the list… but then so is Reggie Williams.
Andre Johnson was actually in a similar situation to Little in that Johnson’s team, the Texans, were extremely thin on offense in the same way that Little’s 2011 Browns were. Johnson had a better rookie season than Little did, but it wasn’t better by orders of magnitude. It was just a little better.
It might seem odd to see Shannon Sharpe’s name on the list, but he isn’t separated from Little by very much size and Little’s yards per reception of just 11 yards looks more like the production that you would get out of a tight end.
Perhaps the most disappointing name to see on the list is Reggie Williams. Somewhat like Little, Williams was selected more for being a physical specimen than an accomplished receiver.
Using these names it’s actually possible to look at what they did in the year after they were similar to Little. They actually improved as a group. They didn’t improve by a lot, but they improved. Thirteen of the eighteen receivers* improved their touchdown numbers, and a little better than half of the receivers improved their yardage numbers. The other thing that’s worth noting is that even among a group of similar players where age was one of the criteria for similarity, Little is younger than the group. He still has three to four years before we would expect him to be playing at peak level.
Perhaps somewhat disappointingly, looking at Greg Little similar players doesn’t give us a lot more clarity on the topic of what his pro career might look like. The issue that the Browns had when they were trying to know whether to draft him is still there. He is a physical specimen, but unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to career success for every similar receiver. Little has a lot of upside, but it’s too early to know whether Browns fans should get excited.
*Mike Williams hasn’t played the following year yet and Sylvester Morris was injured in the offseason following the 2000 season.
If you’ve been following at all, you know by now that we here at the Sickness like to do our analysis a little differently. Rather than feigning expertise we don’t actually possess, or trying to convince you that we are able to see the future (read: giving each team a letter grade for a draft from which not a single player has set foot on the field yet), I like to sift through the myriad selections and give you my favorites at each position. I’m taking both “value” (as subjectively assessed by yours truly) and team need into account. This isn’t necessarily the best player chosen at each (or any particular) position. Rather, these are the Sickness Approved choices. Draft picks who I think will look like relative steals at their respective draft positions when we look back on this selection party three years hence.
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I was impressed again this year with what I view as the overall improvement in draft process around the league. I think most teams got it right more often than not. It used to be we’d have a handful of dreadful drafts to pan at the end of the weekend. Now, almost nobody was totally out of left field with their choices. Most teams seem to understand their needs, and have learned through organizational pass-down or simple trial-and-error that choosing to address those needs over selecting the best football players on the board is an almost surefire ticket to misery. As such, fewer glaring errors stand out. The teams that we know have always done it well are still doing it well (Eagles, Steelers, Patriots, just as a few examples, killed it this year), and even some long-questioned draft flubbers- most notably the Cincinnati Bengals, who had arguably the most impressive draft in the league- are nailing it down. For an NFL draft fan, this was a captivating weekend.
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QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson would be an easy first-rounder if not for his lack of height. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: Never mind Raymond; Everyone loves Luck and Griffin, and they’re both in what I consider to be perfect spots. Luck will be in an offense that tears up the middle of the field and takes its shots. Griffin will be killing people on play pass and stretch boots, throwing bombs to freak athlete wideouts in what should eventually be an explosive attack in DC. But departing momentarily from the obvious, I think the Seahawks’ third-round “gamble” for Wilson was a stroke of genius. When I watch Wilson play, I see the rare exception to the Short Quarterback Postulate. My case is supported by Wilson’s A+ athleticism and strong arm, his collegiate production, his ability to pick up two different systems and win, his evident leadership and communicative skills, and the simple fact that he had fewer passes batted down than Luck, Griffin and Tannehill (among others). As many have noted, he played behind the nation’s tallest line at Wisconsin, the ball comes out high and he’s outstanding at finding the necessary throwing lanes. Wilson has long been Sickness Approved, and the time he will have to absorb Darrell Bevell’s version of the West Coast should allow him to get to the business of competing with Matt Flynn for a longer-term commitment in a year or two.
BJ Coleman, Green Bay Packers (7/243): You will hear this name again in three or four years when Ted Thompson parlays him into a high draft pick. Mark it.
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RUNNING BACK
LaMichael James, San Francisco 49ers (2/61): Have fun catching this guy on the counter after Frank Gore beats you down for three quarters. A perfect fit for all involved.
Michael Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7/212): I also love Doug Martin, for whom the Bucs traded back up into the first round, but to land Michael Smith so late in the draft was a stunner to me. Smith has home run speed.
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WIDE RECEIVER
Reuben Randle, New York Giants (3/63): Eli gets yet another toy. One of the “fallers” that most surprised me, Randle has good size, speed and athleticism and falls into a perfect position as a depth option behind Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and company for the Super Bowl champs.
Devon Wylie, Kansas City Chiefs (4/107): If he stays healthy, Wiggles has all-pro upside as a slot receiver. It could get explosive with Bowe, McCluster, Moeaki, Wylie and Charles on the field all at once. Have fun with that, AFC West.
Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals (5/166): Jones was well-known and much ballyhooed among the draft community for the past several months. There’s a reason. High-grade body control and stick-um hands. Not to rip the QB play at Cal, but Jones could have put up ridiculous numbers in other offenses, if you know what I’m sayin’.
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TIGHT END
Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (2/34): For all the obvious reasons.
David Paulson, Pittsburgh Steelers (7/240): As I look at this list, it seems a bit Pac-heavy, but I really do like a lot of these fits. Paulson fits the fine tradition of under-appreciated Steelers tight ends. It will be interesting to see how they employ him under Todd Haley.
Micheal Egnew, Miami Dolphins (3/78): Huge and fast, Egnew could fall into the category of tight ends whose college coaches either didn’t know what to do with them or just weren’t willing to significantly change their offenses to feature them in a Belichick/Payton fashion. That the Dolphins drafted him in the third round, and before any wide receiver, indicates an intention to join those ranks relatively soon.
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OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Mitchell Schwartz, Cleveland Browns (2/37): Some called this a reach. I can only assume none of them saw a single game played by either the Cal Bears or the Cleveland Browns in the fall of 2011. He’ll have growing pains, but this is a huge upgrade at a position of major need.
Cordy Glenn (2/41), and Zebrie Sanders (5/144), Buffalo Bills: Buddy Nix, I salute you. Building what should in time be one of the best defenses in the NFL with Mario Williams and two fine corners, Nix also added these potential future bookends. At worst, Glenn should be a standout guard with flexibility to kick outside. The Bills have done some damn fine work the past couple off-seasons, and imagine how it’s going to look if CJ Spiller breaks out as many expect?
Matt Kalil, Minnesota Vikings (1/4): They traded down for extra picks and added what I suspect will be a top 10 left tackle. Great stuff.
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OFFENSIVE GUARD
David DeCastro, Pittsburgh Steelers (1/24): Are you kidding me with this? Nobody between, say, 15 and 23 wanted to pull one of the best interior offensive line prospects in years off the board before he fell into the Steelers’ lap? How do they do this every year, you ask? Easy: they just keep drafting good players. Sooner or later, a great one for one of your only needs accidentally jumps into your shopping cart. For previous examples, see Roethlisberger, Ben and Woodley, Lamarr.
Brandon Brooks, Houston Texans (3/76): He’s 350 pounds of mobility, and will fit in beautifully in the Texans’ zone scheme. When he gets moving, he’ll be faster than most guards in the league. Nice little nasty streak on him, too.
Kelechi Osemele, Baltimore Ravens (2/60): He had the ability to play left tackle in college, and will soon be an upgrade on much of their line.
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CENTER
Peter Konz, Atlanta Falcons (2/55): The draft’s best center doesn’t come off the board until 55? Rough year for centers. But Atlanta happily plucked him up and filled a position of need.
Phillip Blake, Denver Broncos (4/108): The new Jeff Saturday!
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DEFENSIVE END
Vinny Curry, Philadelphia Eagles (2/59): So, let me get this straight. They led the league in sacks a year ago. They’re running Trent Cole and Jason Babin out there…and they’re going to add Vinny Curry to the mix? Is this even allowed? Can I get a ruling?
Jared Crick, Houston Texans (4/126): Crick’s drop to the fourth round was as big a surprise to me as any other in the draft. He’s (Mayock alert!) scheme-versatile and can kick inside on passing downs. A player that so many talked about as a first rounder not long ago is too talented to ignore in a defense that keeps looking more and more fun for Wade Phillips to play with.
Andre Branch, Jacksonville Jaguars (2/38): Just a real fine all-around player who creates leverage well, beats guys off the line often enough, and plays with good balance. A quality addition to that Jags D-line.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Devon Still, Cincinnati Bengals (2/53): Often projected as a first-round pick, Still and earlier choice Dre Kirkpatrick should help satisfy Marvin Lewis. You did notice his pre-draft comment, did you not, about the team having “neglected the defense” recently? Well, no more.
Alameda Te’Amu, Pittsburgh Steelers (4/109): I give up- the draft is obviously rigged for the Steelers. Te’Amu is just a perfect, big, strong fit for the Steelers’ front.
Fletcher Cox, Philadelphia Eagles (1/12): And Fletcher Cox, too? OK, I take it back. The draft is rigged for Pennsylvania.
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OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
Melvin Ingram, San Diego Chargers (1/18): Perhaps my favorite defensive prospect in this draft. Call him an OLB or a DE, but make sure you call him a baller. I suspect a dozen or so teams will be kicking themselves in two or three years.
Courtney Upshaw, Baltimore Ravens (2/35): Again. Are you kidding me? And all of a sudden, this pick got much more important with the bad news on Thursday. It’s like someone knew T-Sizzle was going to go down (a huge blow to both the Ravens and fans of high-motor physical football). Another guy who could be a LB or DE depending on your look.
Terrell Manning, Green Bay Packers (5/163): Explosive athlete who can do everything needed from the position in the Packers’ 3-4. It may take some time, but I see an eventual starter. Props to Brendan Leister for pointing him out to me.
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Mychal Kendricks will soon be making plays for the Eagles.
INSIDE LINEBACKER
Mychal Kendricks, Philadelphia Eagles (2/46): The Eagles absolutely killed this draft, and no better evidence exists than their 2nd round scores of Curry and Kendricks.
Dont’a Hightower, New England Patriots (1/25): Belichick stuns everyone and moves up twice in the first round, scoring perfect fits for his improving defense. Gotta love it. Hightower joins the long line of fantastic Hoodie LB’s.
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CORNERBACK
Janoris Jenkins, St. Louis Rams (2/39): Yes, the red flags were apparently abundant. But have you seen the tape? He shut down AJ Green. He shut down Julio Jones. (Perhaps you’ve heard of them.) The only things he didn’t shut down while in the SEC were his libido and penchant for chronic indulgence. And, being real…the only issue that concerns me there if I’m an NFL executive is the potential for suspension. Bottom line, Jenkins is a top-15 talent. If he can be properly guided, he’s going to be a star. Great gamble by Les Snead and Jeff Fisher.
Brandon Boykin, Philadelphia Eagles (4/123): Sen Dog was PUMPED for this pick, and rightfully so. With the depth they have at the position, Boykin can put his playmaking skills to use early as a dime, and take his time developing.
Jamell Fleming, Arizona Cardinals (3/80): One of my favorite defensive players in college football, Fleming should eventually form a nice pair with last year’s first-round pick, Patrick Peterson.
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SAFETY
George Iloka, Cincinnati Bengals (5/153): At 6’3″, 225 Iloka is what I imagine most safeties are going to look like soon. As in, they have bodies of smallish outside linebackers and the speed and athleticism to keep up with the new breed of tight end in the NFL.
Mark Barron, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1/7): Again- they traded back and landed a fantastic player at a position of need. Clearly, they noticed Jimmy Graham.
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Hard to believe the draft has come and gone, but there you have it. The 2012 All-Sickness NFL Draft Team. Who’d I miss? Which were your guys? Let me know below or on Twitter @FtblSickness. And to finish, a sheer guess at the #1 overall pick in a year…naaaaah. Check the podcast. We did it there.
Few utterly meaningless exercises engender more amusement, hysteria and rage than the mock NFL draft. Everyone has their concrete ideas of what will happen, they study their brains out, deciphering proper slotting according to how they view a particular prospect, team need and/or evaluation method, and finding just the right fit at each spot…and then it all goes completely to hell at pick 3. Seriously, nobody knows anything beyond the first couple of picks. In part, this is because at this time of year in the NFL, misinformation is king, and we’re all having ungodly amounts of smoke blown up our collective wazoo. Even those guys with the flawless hair on TV don’t have great success picking who will go where. And don’t even get me started on trying to predict trades. Remember how Shanahan and the Redskins were going to move up for or select one of the many first-round-ready quarterbacks in last year’s draft? Yeah. They took Ryan Kerrigan at 16. Meanwhile, my mock at the top is way too similar to many others, meaning there’s no chance it happens this way because we all fell for the smoke. Got it? Good.
For this Sickness 2012 Mock, there will be a couple of simple ground rules. First: no trades. I’ll mention where appropriate when I think trades are likely or at least more plausible, but that’s it. I’m not trying to go insane attempting to predict the whims of NFL executives. I’m guessing strictly based on my wholly amateur opinion of (1) prospect value and (2) team need and/or history. Second, I try and take into account what a team’s schemes are, and not just throw guys to a team because they need someone at a given position. There’s no point mocking a 3-4 OLB to the Eagles, for example. Different teams are looking for different things, and while I don’t pretend to understand every minute detail of most teams’ philosophies, just know that some marginal thought has gone into the thing. Third, I’m making the traditional guesswork prediction, and then telling you what I would do were I in charge of each team. Full disclosure: I’m not even pretending I have any idea what most of them actually will do. Lastly: we’re here to have fun. I know some of these make no sense. Have you tried this nonsense?!? Mock me all you wish. My skin is thick and my helmet is on!
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1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Guesswork Prediction- Andrew Luck, QB (Stanford). Throw me in with the lot who consider him the most complete, non-speculative, outstanding prospect since John Elway. Luck provides a decision-maker with the comfort of knowing his pre-snap read, adjustment and anticipatory skills have already been tested at an NFL level. A superior athlete in his own right, Luck has the stature to hang in the pocket and shed sacks and the ability to make huge plays outside the pocket and running with the football. The Colts go from one once-in-a-generation QB to the next. They’ve already told us so.
If I Were GM: Luck.
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2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Robert Griffin III, QB (Baylor). Another foregone QB conclusion, and easily the story to watch going forward in the NFL for 2012. If he becomes what the Redskins obviously expect him to given the haul they gave up to get him, he will be a transformative figure in NFL history. Kick your feet up. Watch. Enjoy. Unless you’re a defensive coordinator. In which case, ready thyself. Watch that zone boot. Watch the play-action off the stretch look. Good luck.
If I Were GM: RGIII. (Technically, since I’m a Browns fan, maybe I’d take Matt Kalil here and let Grif fall to 4. Heh. (Damn it.))
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3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Matt Kalil, OT (USC). Rumors of trade possibilities are heating up in all corners as of this writing, and nothing would surprise me. The Rams originally held the keys to the draft, but have long since removed that suspense by making the Griffin trade weeks before the draft. As a result, the Vikes have their choice of a franchise left tackle or an elite corner. As it so happens, they are in desperate need of both in this new passing NFL, and either would be a perfectly reasonable choice. But Kalil not only carries additional premium because he protects the QB’s blind side and has NFL bloodlines, he’s generally considered the superior prospect. This shouldn’t be a tough card for the purple to turn in, but if they don’t take Kalil, heads’ up…because the draft is about to get really interesting.
If I Were GM: Kalil. (Sickness First Commandment: Protect Thy Quarterback.)
4. CLEVELAND BROWNS: Trent Richardson, RB (Alabama). I go back and forth daily between Richardson, Justin Blackmon and Morris Claiborne, each of whom I think would be an excellent fit. But ultimately, the Browns need to do two things if they are to live with Colt McCoy for even one more season (as it appears that they might). First, they must shorten the game. Second, they must score more touchdowns. Richardson will help with both. And while I’m not arguing about the general devaluation of the RB position (See the fine piece here by Shawn Siegele), I think exceptions to most rules exist, and Richardson is one to that “rule.” (Many call this stupid. I call it betting against the house. Again, if I can get LeSean McCoy or Ray Rice production at #4…am I bumming that hard?) If Richardson isn’t there, I would guess a trade down or Blackmon.
If I Were GM: Richardson.
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5. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Morris Claiborne, CB (LSU). In this scenario the Bucs end up with the draft’s top corner and a potential top-flight starter at a key position (especially in a division inhabited by Drew Brees, Matthew Ryan, Cam Newton and friends). They might be interested in Justin Blackmon, but in my view Claiborne is the better prospect. He plays one of the premium positions, and he’s ready to step in and do the job for which he’ll be drafted on day 1. There’s one other reason: the Bucs have gotten far too old and too non-law-abiding in recent years. This will help re-set the course of the Bucs’ ship.
If I Were GM: Claiborne.
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6. ST. LOUIS RAMS: Fletcher Cox, DT (Miss. St.). A lot of noise about this one, which makes me wonder. But Cox is a heck of a talent. And I do seem to recall Fisher having outstanding defensive lines in Tennessee.
If I Were GM: Justin Blackmon. I’d be thinking about trading up to 3 for Kalil, because Sam Bradford ain’t making that new-CBA, slotted rookie money. No, sir. I’ve got big cash in Sammy B, I’m committed to him, and I need to make damn sure I keep division foes like the San Francisco Smiths, the New Orleans…well…y’know…and the sometimes dominant Seahawk front four off his ass. If Kalil is here (and there is a chance), I’d pull that trigger. Otherwise, I’m equipping him with my favorite of the top receivers.
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7. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Stephon Gilmore, CB (South Carolina). The Jags seem like as good a bet for a trade as any team in the top 10, so let’s get that out there. Maybe the Jets come up for a Melvin Ingram, or someone else antsy for a corner or offensive tackle. But here, they’re stuck. Wideout is certainly a major need, so Blackmon and Floyd would have to be on the radar. But I still think those corners and pass rushers get pushed up the board, and the Jags could use one of each. Alfie Crow and Peter King beat me to the Stephon Gilmore call (and undoubtedly with infinitely more actual information at hand), but I feel no need to be original here.
If I Were GM: Melvin Ingram. I’m just a believer and think he fits anywhere. I’m probably crazy.
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Much of the draft fun will turn on where this dude lands.
8. MIAMI DOLPHINS: Ryan Tannehill, QB (Texas A & M). I honestly have no idea here. Just riding the wave. (Tannehill & Grudes.)
If I Were GM: Probably Tannehill. But I’d be nervous as hell. Blackmon and Floyd would be my other options.
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9. CAROLINA PANTHERS: Quentin Coples, DE/DT (North Carolina). Like I said, these guys get pushed up the board. Butch Davis may be known for a lot of things, but let’s not forget that one of them is coaching up quality D-Linemen, and knowing talent at these positions. Coples has plenty. Questions about his motor and tendency to play too upright are totally valid, but so are observations of his considerable ability. Freakishly athletic and versatile enough to play inside or out, someone is going to find Coples well worth the gamble sooner rather than later.
If I Were GM: Michael Floyd. Cam is a special passer, and I like Brandon LaFell a lot. But I also know that Steve Smith can’t play forever and Floyd has dominant potential. I’d take him…then I’d go defense the rest of the draft.
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10. BUFFALO BILLS: Justin Blackmon, WR (Oklahoma St.) First, a note: I could see the Bills trading up for someone like Kalil or taking Tannehill if he fell this far. But since I’m not predicting trades…Blackmon would be fantastic opposite Stevie Johnson. Ryan Fitzpatrick would know exactly how to work the ball to Blackmon and to utilize the Oklahoma State star’s Dr. Octopus-like catch radius and aggression for the football. He’s also a nightmare in the open field and often takes more than one small man to bring down. Most mocks have him going higher, and with good reason. But I think there’s a chance he falls with a perception that he is not quite the elite athlete that, say, AJ Green and Julio Jones were a year ago (they went 4 and 6, respectively).
If I Were GM: Again. Melvin Ingram. He’d look nice behind that devastating D-line they’re building. Or book-ending it on certain downs.
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11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: David DeCastro, G (Stanford). I had Dontari Poe in here, but I just can’t bring myself to do it. He doesn’t dominate on tape despite his fantastic measurables and combine workout. Plus, DeCastro is a surefire decade-long starter on the interior line and will help grind out yards with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis pounding through the holes.
If I Were GM: DeCastro.
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12. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB (South Carolina). Finally. Coach Pete gets a new toy.
If I Were GM: Ingram. Was that not clear?
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13. ARIZONA CARDINALS: Reily Reiff, OT (Iowa). The Cardinals have to protect whomever their quarterback will be, this year and in the future.
IF I Were GM: Floyd. I’m in the minority, but I don’t see Reiff as a surefire left tackle, and would have a tough time taking him here as a result. And Fitz desperately wants Floyd. This would fit.
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14. DALLAS COWBOYS: Mark Barron, S (Alabama). All the consensus picks, like the Cowboys taking a defensive back here, make me uncomfortable. It’s just too easy. But they do need ‘em. Badly. Of course, Adam Schefter guaranteed on Wednesday that Barron won’t make it to this slot, so…
If I Were GM: Dre Kirkpatrick. It’s simple. He’s Sabanized and corners are more important to me.
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15. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Michael Brockers, DT (LSU): Sen Dog assures me the Eagles’ biggest issue is up front on defense and that he’d be enthralled with the addition of the big DL from LSU. Good enough for me.
If I Were GM: Luke Keuchly. They desperately need the upgrade. Of course, it’s at least 50/50 he’s gone before this pick.
Will these guys go nuts?
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16. NEW YORK JETS: Courtney Upshaw, LB (Alabama): Smoke, noise, rumors, innuendo…and none of it about Tebow or feet in general. One well-placed rumor had the Jets interested in trading way up for Trent Richardson. I have a real hard time seeing that, but I don’t have a hard time seeing the Jets moving around. GM Mike Tannenbaum has made that a regular practice, and I half expect him to be selecting 8 or 10 spots earlier here. But Upshaw would fit beautifully into Rex’s 3-4 and is a quality thumper.
If I Were GM: Upshaw or Dontari Poe. Poe’s got questions, but Rex has a way with those guys and there aren’t many of “those guys” on the planet.
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17. CINCINNATI BENGALS (FROM OAK): Luke Keuchly, LB (Boston College). As I mentioned above, I think in real life he’s gone by here. I just don’t know to whom, and in this particular scenario, he’s still sitting here for the Bengals to pluck up. Marvin Lewis was quoted just this week as saying they’ve “neglected the defense.” Let’s go ahead and assume that gets rectified in the first round.
If I Were GM: I’d go with Kirkpatrick first, but they get him anyway here and I can’t in good conscience just keep letting Keuchly fall. This is madness.
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18. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Cordy Glenn, OL (Georgia). The Bolts have been devastated up front with injuries and surprise retirements. Glenn is a big, athletic, versatile plug-and-play guy.
If I Were GM: Glenn. I loved Rumford Johnny’s pick of McClellin here, but I think the OL is a huge need.
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19. CHICAGO BEARS: Michael Floyd, WR (Notre Dame). They’d be beyond lucky to get him here and to pair him with Brandon Marshall. Jay Cutler is an immensely talented quarterback who, in my view, started to make the leap into the upper echelon with outstanding play throughout 2011. Add another monster weapon and start doing some real damage to the rest of the NFC North.
If I Were GM: Floyd or Reiff.
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20. TENNESSEE TITANS: Nick Perry, DE (USC). Still raw, but a rare athlete at a premium position with a nose for the QB and the power to bring him down when he gets there.
If I Were GM: In all honesty? Janoris Jenkins. Huge risk. But it’s #20, not #2.
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21. CINCINNATI BENGALS: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB (Alabama). I’ll be stunned if the Bengals don’t come out of the first round with a new corner one way or another.
If I Were GM: Kendall Wright. Put him opposite AJ Green and watch the points roll in.
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22. CLEVELAND BROWNS (FROM ATL): Reuben Randle, WR (LSU). It’ll be interesting to see whether they like Brandon Weeden enough to take him this early despite his advanced age (and if they take Blackmon at No. 4, they might just do that), or whether they look to a less obvious position like rush end. But I think it’s probably a wide receiver or a new right tackle. Several popular choices exist for the wideout spot. I think Reuben Randle makes a ton of sense here, and I hear they’ve got this batch of WR’s all pretty closely ranked.
If I Were GM: Randle. I’d be highly tempted to take Janoris Jenkins, but my team is still too young and developing. I’m a big believer in Reuben Randle.
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23. DETROIT LIONS: Whitney Mercilus, DE (Illinois). Lead the nation in sacks, and would have a good chance at early production with guys like Suh, Fairley and Avril eating up blocks. Can learn on the job with the depth currently in place. And the Schwartz wants to destroy QB’s. All makes good sense to me.
If I Were GM: Tough call for me. Since I don’t trust their RB’s to stay healthy? I might look at a quality all-around back like Doug Martin of Boise St. here.
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24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Kevin Zeitler, OG (Wisconsin). I have to think Ben is tired of getting demolished back there, and you know with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley in town they’re going to show a renewed commitment to Steeler football and the effective running of the football. Zeitler is a quality player that addresses both of these issues, shoring up the interior of that offensive line.
If I Were GM: Dont’a Hightower. Just seems like a Steeler to me.
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25. DENVER BRONCOS: Devon Still, DT (Penn St.) Or maybe Dontari Poe. Or even a running back. But the Broncos must help the middle of that defensive line. I tore them up for not taking Dareus last year (though Von Miller was clearly an outstanding choice), and would do so again if they fail to address what I think is their biggest need.
If I Were GM: Still.
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26. HOUSTON TEXANS: Kendall Wright, WR (Baylor). There seems to be a decent amount of disagreement as to what echelon of player Wright is, but he’s a first-rounder in my book. Couldn’t care less about his timed speed, as the tape shows me he knows how to use whatever he’s got to manipulate and destroy db’s. Tough to square up after the catch, a fine route-runner, and sure-handed. Would fit nicely opposite Andre Johnson and give the Texans that #2 that they’ve been looking for for so long.
If I Were GM: Wright or Poe.
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McClellin keeps rising.
27. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (FROM N.O.): Chandler Jones, DE (Syracuse). Leaning on my man Rummy, here, and I like Jones a good bit. The Patriots are impossible to predict. I certainly didn’t have them targeting those two rookie RB’s last year. And I fully expect them to trade at least one of these late first rounders.
If I Were Gm: I’d just defer to Belichick. Heh.
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28. GREEN BAY PACKERS: Shea McClellin, DE/OLB (Boise St.) Long before he became fashionable with well-known and outstanding draftniks like Greg Cosell, my man Brendan Leister was going crazy telling me how good this guy was. The more Boise video I watched, the more I could see why. Explosive, fantastic get-off, and one of those tough, fundamentally sound Broncos studs. Someone will be exceptionally pleased to get him, and he’d be an insanely good fit opposite Clay Matthews III.
If I Were GM: McClellin.
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29. BALTIMORE RAVENS: Dont’a Hightower, LB (Alabama). “Oh, hey. Looky what we found here. A perfect fit for our aging defense.” – Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome.
If I Were GM: I’m a Browns fan. I’d let the Ravens’ pick expire. (Nope. Still not over it.)
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30. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Coby Fleener, TE (Stanford). Yes, they have Vernon Davis, and he’s a monster. But perhaps youv’e noticed a team or two looking to run multiple TE threats out there? Plus we’ve got the Harbaugh connection. If Kendall Wright were still available, I’d have done that.
If I Were GM: I might gamble on Stephen Hill of Georgia Tech here. Crazy fast and appears to have every tool in the box. Just didn’t get enough run in that triple option at GT to know for sure.
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31. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Janoris Jenkins (CB) Northern Alabama. If anybody can afford to gamble, it’s the Hoodie. Jenkins dominated while in the SEC. Bill likes Florida guys. That’s all I’ve got.
If I Were GM: Jenkins. You bet’cha.
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32. NEW YORK GIANTS: Bobbie Massie, OT (Mississippi State). I think the Giants are going to be pleased with just about anything that falls into their lap at 32, and Massie is a big stud OL with major upside. They can take their time and develop him, possibly into the LT of their future.
If I Were GM: Lamar Miller. A fun, luxurious replacement for the Tiptoe Bandit and a fine complement to/insurance for Ahmad Bradshaw. I doubt they’d do it, though.
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Post Script: Thank the Gridiron Gods this is over for another year. The Mock Draft is exhausting and infuriating. Enjoy your draft weekend, everyone!
