OTA's, ADP's & UDFA's. Training Camp Can't Come Soon Enough.
This guy could have a big year.
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A daily link spewage. The SICK LINKS.
This article is a guest post by the Fantasy Douche. You can follow the Fantasy Douche on Twitter where he is simply @FantasyDouche. You can also find him on his website where he writes about fantasy football and real football. Lastly, you can check out his book “Game Plan: A Radical Approach to Decision Making in the NFL” on Amazon.
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Greg Little is the kind of wide receiver that presents the age old question of whether teams should be drafting physical specimens (who might learn to play wide receiver) or whether they should instead be selecting accomplished college wide receivers. Little was certainly a physical specimen coming out of North Carolina, but he wasn’t much of an accomplished wide receiver.
When the Browns took Little in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, they were looking at a receiver that had many of the physical traits of Andre Johnson, but no college record that would make teams comfortable. Little was close to 230 pounds and yet still ran extremely well at the 2011 Combine. But Little’s best college season had been a little over 700 yards with 5 touchdowns. Because he was a converted running back, Little wasn’t giving pro scouts much of a resume to look at. The Browns didn’t know at the time whether they were wasting a draft pick, or getting an extreme bargain. Either outcome is within the range of possibilities.
It’s much too early to pass any judgment on the Browns’ experiment with Little, but we can look at Little’s rookie season and compare it to other similar seasons to see if it tells us anything about what Little’s future might be.
The below table contains the 20 most similar receiver seasons to Greg Little’s 2011 campaign. Note that I said receiver and not wide receiver. That’s because rather than breaking comparisons off at position, I use things like height and weight to make comparisons. The list of comparable receivers is interesting to say the least. The list of similar players has been created in much the same way that Pandora determines which music is similar to a song that you like. I look at things like height, age, weight and receiving stats in the same way that Pandora looks at things like percussion and major key tonality.
Greg Little (2011) Similar Seasons (All Per Game Numbers Based on Games Receiver Had > 0 Catches)
| SubjectPlayer | Year | Tm | Age | Wt | Ht | G | Rec/G | Y/G | TD/G | YPR |
| Greg Little |
2011 |
CLE |
22 |
220 |
75 |
15 |
4.1 | 47.3 | 0.13 | 11.6 |
| Similar Players | Year | Tm | Age | Wt | Ht | G | Rec/G | Y/G | TD/G | YPR |
| FRANK SANDERS |
1996 |
ARI |
23 |
215 |
74 |
16 |
4.3 | 50.8 | 0.25 | 11.8 |
| SHANNON SHARPE |
1992 |
DEN |
24 |
228 |
74 |
13 |
4.1 | 49.2 | 0.15 | 12.1 |
| JOHNNY MITCHELL |
1994 |
NYJ |
23 |
241 |
75 |
15 |
3.9 | 49.9 | 0.27 | 12.9 |
| BRANDON GIBSON |
2010 |
STL |
23 |
204 |
73 |
14 |
3.8 | 44.3 | 0.14 | 11.7 |
| MIKE WILLIAMS |
2011 |
TB |
24 |
204 |
74 |
15 |
4.3 | 51.4 | 0.20 | 11.9 |
| REGGIE WILLIAMS |
2006 |
JAX |
23 |
225 |
76 |
15 |
3.5 | 41.1 | 0.27 | 11.8 |
| RONALD CURRY |
2006 |
OAK |
27 |
220 |
74 |
15 |
4.1 | 48.5 | 0.07 | 11.7 |
| DONALD HAYES |
2001 |
CAR |
26 |
220 |
76 |
15 |
3.5 | 39.8 | 0.13 | 11.5 |
| ANDRE JOHNSON |
2003 |
HOU |
22 |
219 |
75 |
16 |
4.1 | 61.0 | 0.25 | 14.8 |
| BRYANT JOHNSON |
2004 |
ARI |
23 |
214 |
74 |
14 |
3.5 | 38.4 | 0.07 | 11.0 |
| J.J. STOKES |
1997 |
SF |
25 |
218 |
76 |
15 |
3.9 | 48.9 | 0.27 | 12.6 |
| KEVIN WALTER |
2009 |
HOU |
28 |
221 |
75 |
14 |
3.8 | 43.6 | 0.14 | 11.5 |
| OWEN DANIELS |
2007 |
HOU |
25 |
245 |
75 |
16 |
3.9 | 48.0 | 0.19 | 12.2 |
| KEVIN WALTER |
2007 |
HOU |
26 |
221 |
75 |
15 |
4.3 | 53.3 | 0.27 | 12.3 |
| SYLVESTER MORRIS |
2000 |
KC |
23 |
206 |
75 |
15 |
3.2 | 45.2 | 0.20 | 14.1 |
| JORDY NELSON |
2010 |
GB |
25 |
215 |
75 |
15 |
3.0 | 38.8 | 0.13 | 12.9 |
| EARL BENNETT |
2009 |
CHI |
22 |
205 |
73 |
16 |
3.4 | 44.8 | 0.13 | 13.3 |
| RANDY MCMICHAEL |
2003 |
MIA |
24 |
250 |
75 |
15 |
3.3 | 39.9 | 0.13 | 12.2 |
| DEZ WHITE |
2003 |
CHI |
24 |
215 |
73 |
15 |
3.3 | 38.9 | 0.20 | 11.9 |
| MICHAEL CRABTREE |
2009 |
SF |
22 |
215 |
74 |
11 |
4.4 | 56.8 | 0.18 | 13.0 |
| Averages | 24.0 | 219.8 | 74.6 | 14.7 | 3.7 | 46.4 | 0.2 | 12.4 |
Note that while individual players might differ in some way from Little, the average numbers are extremely close to Little’s 2011. It might be appropriate to say that in considering Little’s future, the most likely outcome is the average of all of these players.
But that’s no fun, so let’s look at some individual names. The list contains some extremely encouraging names for Browns fans… and some not so encouraging. Andre Johnson is on the list… but then so is Reggie Williams.
Andre Johnson was actually in a similar situation to Little in that Johnson’s team, the Texans, were extremely thin on offense in the same way that Little’s 2011 Browns were. Johnson had a better rookie season than Little did, but it wasn’t better by orders of magnitude. It was just a little better.
It might seem odd to see Shannon Sharpe’s name on the list, but he isn’t separated from Little by very much size and Little’s yards per reception of just 11 yards looks more like the production that you would get out of a tight end.
Perhaps the most disappointing name to see on the list is Reggie Williams. Somewhat like Little, Williams was selected more for being a physical specimen than an accomplished receiver.
Using these names it’s actually possible to look at what they did in the year after they were similar to Little. They actually improved as a group. They didn’t improve by a lot, but they improved. Thirteen of the eighteen receivers* improved their touchdown numbers, and a little better than half of the receivers improved their yardage numbers. The other thing that’s worth noting is that even among a group of similar players where age was one of the criteria for similarity, Little is younger than the group. He still has three to four years before we would expect him to be playing at peak level.
Perhaps somewhat disappointingly, looking at Greg Little similar players doesn’t give us a lot more clarity on the topic of what his pro career might look like. The issue that the Browns had when they were trying to know whether to draft him is still there. He is a physical specimen, but unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to career success for every similar receiver. Little has a lot of upside, but it’s too early to know whether Browns fans should get excited.
*Mike Williams hasn’t played the following year yet and Sylvester Morris was injured in the offseason following the 2000 season.
You’ve all been clamoring for it, and now you’ve got it: a crossing of the football podcast streams, as Rumford Johnny & Ryan Forbes of the stellar 2 Mugs Fantasy Football site and podcast join FootballSickness.com’s Ryan Burns and Sen Sogah in a hybrid edition. Of course, with a hybrid of any sort, you never really know how it’s going to turn out, and it has the potential to get aggressive. The fellas get in depth on the NFL Draft, the fantasy impact of the soon-to-be-rookies, and try not to get in each other’s lanes. It’s a good time, it’s got good pace, and you know you want it. GET YOUR HELMET ON!!!
Click HERE for the FOOTBALL SICKNESS PODCAST, 2 Mugs Hybrid Edition.
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THE SICKNESS SPECIAL DOUBLEHEADER
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT ATLANTA FALCONS 35, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 21: Even a Dream Team gets to have nightmares every once in awhile, and this was it for the Eagles. This one had everything you hope to avoid: big turnovers, huge injuries, a total failure to close out a game you should have won against a quality opponent. Yep, hate it when that happens. As I see it, the difficult task that is protecting Michael Vick remains the central question of the Philly campaign. It necessitates walking a very fine line no matter what, but so far in his career Andy Reid has proven surprisingly adept at such high-wire feats (especially for a man of such- ahem- stature). Here’s hoping Vick gets back quickly, but I think we saw even in that brief appearance that Mike Kafka is unlikely to embarrass himself should they need him. And we also saw that Trent Cole rather enjoys the wide 9 technique. You thought he was an animal before? Watch this. Meanwhile, that’s a huge win for the Falcons at home, and they get bonus points because they did it with a monster performance from old man Tony Gonzalez, a fellow Huntington Beach’er and surefire first ballot Hall of Famer. They showed balance and room to grown on offense. Say what you will about it being “early” but the Falcons wanted no part of going down 0-2 in games to tough conference foes while playing in the nasty NFC South. This was big.
The Eagles need to protect their investment a little better.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 35, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 21: I don’t want to belabor the point. The Patriots are a machine. The machine loses a fairly significant cog in Aaron Hernandez, who is down for a matter of weeks (how many appears up for debate), but count me among those who think all it means is that the next man is up and Tom Brady will just throw it to someone else. The defense is more than sufficient, and has moments where I think maybe they could be excellent by the end of the season. They went 14-2 last year, by the way. As for the Chargers, just a tough early season measuring stick that taught you what you already knew: You need to get better. The biggest takeaway for me is: keep an eye on Antonio Gates. You know the Hoodie is a savant at taking away what you do best, but it looked to me like Gates was nowhere near right, physically speaking. I assume it’s the foot again. He’s a huge part of that offense running smoothly, and if he’s not himself it changes things. All you Vincent Jackson fantasy owners can exhale.
The Best Of The Rest
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 30, CHICAGO BEARS 13: There’s a chance I was a bit hasty on the Bears. They might be what I thought they were. They certainly are along the offensive line, and what I thought they were there (as anyone who has followed for more than a day or two can tell you) is woefully inadequate. Again, next time don’t risk it. Go ahead and add a serviceable pass blocker every draft or three. And the only one they chose to add just dislocated his kneecap. As a result, Jay Cutler damn near got eaten like a safari kill by the New Orleans defense, which came to hunt and left well sated. Until they get a grip on this fundamental area, I can’t take them that seriously. Oh, speaking of which? Matt Forte got only 10 carries, as the esteemed Sen Dog pointed out on this week’s podcast. That’s preposterous. On the other hand, I can definitely take the Saints seriously. The aggressiveness with which they attacked the NFL in that Super Bowl season is back, and so is a renewed physicality. I like what I’m seeing, New Orleans.
BUFFALO BILLS 38, OAKLAND RAIDERS 35: Like I said: DO. NOT. SLEEP. ON THE BUFFALO BILLS. The Raiders took a 21-3 lead into the locker room at the half, and got absolutely slaughtered in the second half. In short, Buffalo made adjustments and quit making mistakes, and the Raiders failed to do either. Let it be said: this was one of those games that has to be going on Al Davis’ personal NFL Vendetta Highlight Reel. Let me get this straight: it’s a coincidence that the Oakland Raiders have to travel east to play an early game in Buffalo after playing the late Monday Night Football opener in Denver? Uh-huh. Anyway, conspiracy theories notwithstanding, it’s clear the old crazy man’s “throw it deep to fast guys” plan, however simple and outdated it may seem to some, can still be successful at the NFL level. The holy-crap-that-preseason-hype-was-warranted performance turned in by Denarius Moore
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Well, well, well. Look who will be visiting Dallas O-2. The Redskins aren’t bad, people. Rex Grossman is limited, no question. But this team can run it like the Shanny Squads of old (Roy Helu looked fantastic this weekend), and that allows Rex to hold the defense for an extra split second, which in turn allows crafty vets like Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney to get what passes for wide open in the NFL. Rex can play that game. Add in suddenly unstoppable tight end Fred Davis, and the ‘Skins can put up a few. Their defense is fast, aggressive, physical, and stout. They’re going to be a problem for just about everybody they play. I’m not sure the Cardinals will, but I still think they’re good enough to win their own division. They still look to me like they’re trying to find the right guys to replace all the talent they’ve lost from the Super Bowl squad.
The Rest Of The Rest
CLEVELAND BROWNS 27, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS COLTS 19: You have to hand it to Mike Holmgren: he hired Tom Heckert, and if the 2010 and 2011 drafts are any indication, the Browns are now drafting as well as anyone. Among the contributors to this victory were 2010 draftees Joe Haden, TJ Ward, and Shawn Luavao and rookie draft picks Phil Taylor, Jabaal Sheard, Greg Little, Todd Pinkston and Owen Marecic. All made key plays. All but Little started, and even he led all Browns wideouts for the second consecutive week in snaps played, so that tells you what they really think of him. That’s before we even mention 2010 3rd-roudner Colt McCoy, by the way, who still has plenty to learn but is capable of making big-time plays like the escape-and-roll-to-his-left strike to Evan Moore for six. Particularly noticeable this week were Taylor and Sheard, part of a big, strong Cleveland D-Line that dominated the Colts’ undersized offensive front. The Colts were really overmatched in the trenches on both sides of the ball, though we know how much better that Colts line would look if #18 were playing behind it. Still, it’s not like Peyton could have fixed every problem on Sunday. One wonders whether, regardless of Peyton’s injury, the Colts might not be in line for some spring cleaning. If Peyton’s injury allows him to return for several more productive years, as Jim Irsay tweeted, then what should we assume about the “shocking,dramatic,inspiring,unimaginable things happening n Coltsland the next 18 months….” Buckle up, indeed.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT NEW YORK JETS: It’s like I said. I just really don’t see how Luke McCown is the answer to anything. And so the Blaine Gabbert era begins, as it probably should have several months ago. The Jets made this one look like a tune-up game, and that’s the mark of a damn fine team.
DETROIT LIONS 48, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 3: Well, Chiefs fans…it’s been fun. See you in 2012, because we’re breaking out the FootballSickness.com DONE stamp for you this week. Back-to-back listless shellackings at the hands of the Bills and Lions are shameful, but the deciding factor is the horribly unlucky break that is Jamaal Charles’ season-ending ACL injury. Remember this: 2010 was not a mirage, but it was a year ahead of schedule. They got a lot of breaks and hit teams at right times, and played pretty well along the way. But they’ve now lost maybe their best player on each side of the ball for the year, and have looked utterly horrible from start to finish in the only two games that count so far. Normally, we wouldn’t be so hasty to declare a season lost, but in this case, recovery seems an unrealistic result. I call ‘em how I see ‘em. And the way I now see it, the Lions are no longer on the come. Like the Poltergeist, they’rrrree heeeeeeerrrrrrre. Also like the Poltergeist, they’re going to torment you. Your quarterback will not sleep the night before facing the Silver Crush. Your defensive coordinator will need two bottles of Mylanta on game day to prepare for the special skills of Matthew Stafford and the Megatron-led Autobots: Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, Titus Young and others. And you can gameplan all you want. If they’re on their game, you’re in for a hell of a day. And I don’t care who you are.
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT TENNESSEE TITANS: First, an excerpt from last week’s preview: “I’ll be watching closely to see if they can follow up on the big win against the Steelers by taking care of business against the vastly inferior Titans. That’s what championship teams do.” Very well, then, Ravens. I’ll put you back over here in the “still have serious questions” pile. What a let-down after the week 1 dismantling of the Steelers. Way to waste it. No disrespect intended to the titans, who certainly won this game. Matt Hasselbeck played extremely well, giving his athletes chances to make plays, which they repeatedly did, from Kenny Britt to Nate Washington to Jared Cook to Javon Ringer. That they won this game without a huge contribution from Chris Johnson is a good sign. But to me, the Ravens are the big story here. You can’t act like this and expect me to keep you around. I like stability. It’s why I’m not real heavy in the markets these days. A smooth ride is preferable. And I’ll jsut go ahead and say it: yes, Joe Flacco is really good. But there are holes in his game. Get that pocket moving around him, to where he has to go mobile, and his accuracy suffers. I say this with no idea of the numbers, this is just what I’m seeing. What’s more, they can’t assert the run quite the way we came to know them as the Ravens. Still one of the best teams in the AFC, but they’re at the bottom of that group, to me.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS: A little better for the Vikings. Adrian Peterson looked like himself and Donovan McNabb managed an actual NFL-level performance. Of course, they lost again. And I’m not sure those folks who suggested it might be a little rougher going this year for the Bucs don’t look 100% wrong at the moment, do they? I’m not sure what it is. Still young, I guess. But I love that they are nevertheless able to grind out these kinds of victories, and one Buc about whom I have no questions is Josh Freeman, especially when it matters. Also nice to see 2011 All-Sickness Draft Team’er Mason Foster absolutely blowing up as a three-down ‘backer on an exciting defense.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 24, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 0: Unlucky break for the Seahawks that they catch Pittsburgh coming off the embarrassing week 1 loss, but I’m not sure it would’ve mattered much. They were bound to get pasted. They should just move on. That’s more like it for the Steelers, who will probably win several in a row if history is any indication. They’re fine.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS: OK, this Cam Newton thing is getting mildly alarming, isn’t it? 400 yards in each of his first two games is more than even his most ardent supporters could have reasonably expected. Of course now, it’ll no doubt be the baseline expectation for the less football savvy among us (we can laugh at them. They don’t come here. See? It’s a safe environment we provide. As the man said, “Free to all.”). Another ACL for Thomas Davis just seems unfair, doesn’t it? Another tough blow to a defense that couldn’t afford it the first time, when it was John Beason. But still and all, the Panthers have be pretty happy with what they’re seeing for the future. They’ll just have to draft linebackers sooner than they hoped. The Packers lost one as well, with Nick Collins gone for the year. But we saw last year that the Packers are in a position to absorb such things, and as long as Aaron Rodgers are in place and making plays as they did Sunday, the Pack remain the team to beat.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: A really exciting end to this one that displayed Tony Romo’s cardiopulmonary fortitude, but here’s my main question: Why was this game close, again? You can get back to me.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: While it is undeniable that the AFC South has been delivered to the Texans on a silver platter this year, you have to hand it to them for starting strong despite the injury to Arian Foster and the adoption of a totally new defense under Wade Phillips. That speaks to quality management and coaching, in my view. Gary Kubiak needs to get at least a modicum of credit for having this team operating at a high level with such significant changes and so little time in which to implement them. Houston has the #1 pass defense in the NFL so far, and while we can question the opposition, from what I’m watching it’s not a fluke. They’re playing very good defense and have the playmakers to sustain it. Mario Williams already has it mostly down. Brian Cushing is back. Jonathan Joseph was a great signing. In short, I’m impressed. And the emergence of Ben Tate on offense is a scary proposition if Arian Foster gets back to normal. The Dolphins keep running into the same old problems, with the exception that Chad Henne hasn’t played poorly. And Daniel Thomas was fantastic in his debut. They’re a pretty good team, but you just get the feeling watching them that Miami is top-end-talent-deficient.
NEW YORK GIANTS 28, ST. LOUIS 16: Well, so much for that, eh Rams fans? Sam Bradford is still the man but it’s pretty clear someone started the hype train just a little bit prematurely. 0-2 is not a fun place from which to attempt a comeback in today’s NFL. Especially as rumors emerge about your owner’s dislike for your coach. I can see it already. Another owner falls prey to the charms of Coach McD. Don’t let it happen. A good win, meanwhile, for the Giants. I still think they’re in trouble. I want to see them beat one of their division foes before I get too excited about anything.
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT DENVER BRONCOS: Both teams have tons of holes but things to be excited about. AJ Green and Eric Decker are both very much for real. Andy Dalton looks just fine to me. I’m not sure what all the critics were so worried about. This happens every year. Way too much group think. And just because Grudes professes to love a quarterback doesn’t mean he’s wrong, by the way. Orton silenced (relatively) the Tebow-lievers for at least this week. Think it’ll last? Yeah. Me neither.
Once again I offer this rather important disclaimer: I am not- I repeat- NOT- a fantasy expert. Sincerely. I’ve played plenty, and somewhere along the line I became that dude at your office who everyone stops by to chat with for 5 minutes on Thursday morning before the waiver period ends or the lineup locks hit. (Don’t worry- I’m not the one who insisted on barging into your office incessantly to discuss your WR3 issue. In this case, the mountain ain’t movin’.) And the fact of the matter is that the SICKNESS as we know and love it would not exist without fantasy football. Good friends from the home league started batting around trash talk/trade negotiation/strategy sessions via email, and a lightbulb appeared. And then, there was the Sickness. And it was good. Or something. Anyway, back to fantasy football. I offer the second annual version of Lead Dogs as an example of the kind of fantasy information you’re going to get here. I’m not giving advice. I offer perspective. Do with it what you will, but recognize in so doing that we all make choices in life. If you draft Brandon Lloyd because I like him and he goes bust, you need to wear it. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. These are the guys I want first for fantasy football purposes from each team in the NFL, with last year’s call in parentheses.
I expect plenty of this in 2011 with Vontae Leach grading road.
Still my overall Lead Dog.
Top 3 QB & Top 10 RB potential all in one dude. Yes, please.
Summer is setting in and it is HOT on the FOOTBALL SICKNESS PODCAST, Summertime Sickness Edition! FootballSickness.com’s Ryan Burns and Sen Sogah wax semi-poetic on all the latest football happenings, including the NFL and its players closing in on labor peace, and the NCAA’s plan to eat itself with preposterous rules and witch hunts (Oregon). New this week, the Fantasy Sickness segment, where Burns is joined by @RumfordJohnny of 2MugsFF.com, a fine fantasy football site and friend of the Sickness, and last but not least, a little contest surprise buried in there for our listeners. Guess you’ll have to listen now. GET YOUR HELMET ON!
CLICK HERE for The FOOTBALL SICKNESS PODCAST, Summertime Sickness Edition
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THIS.
WEEK 16 PICKS & PREVIEW
How in the world did we end up with this next batch of games? Really? It’s week 16, for God’s sake, and by my count, we’re looking at as many as eleven stinkers. Eleven. We couldn’t get this right? Someone should be shot. And these guys want to add two more games to it. You know. To make them more relevant at the end (banging head against wall). I expect about 8 beat-downs here. But once again, at least Monday Night promises a thrilling cap to the week.
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THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Panthers give up tons of sacks, particularly in blitz situations. They’re playing the Steelers. In Pittsburgh. It’s going to get ugly, fast. If the Panthers are able to do anything, it will be running with Jonathan Stewart. With Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith out of the lineup the Steelers aren’t the same. But they’re still a hell of a lot better than the Panthers, and they have a division title in their sights. It’s all business, baby. STEELERS 37, PANTHERS 13.
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THE GOOD STUFF
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT ATLANTA FALCONS: The Falcons can put away the division with their ninth straight win, and given that they’ve lost exactly one game in three years at the Georgia Dome, I’d be a fool not to pick them. And I don’t like playing the fool. The Saints surprised me last week, returning to the inconsistent ways that got them in trouble earlier in the season in a loss at Baltimore. They still have everything it takes, but it’s crunch time, and they still feel Super Bowl hangover-ish to me. I like the Dirty Birds to set the tone early and finish a close one at home. Quite a season they’re having. FALCONS 31, SAINTS 28.
The NFC South crown, and perhaps more, is on the line in Atlanta on Monday Night.
NEW YORK JETS AT CHICAGO BEARS: There should be some good smackin’ in this one, with both teams still having nasty, physical defenses and plenty of playoff repercussion for which to play. It was good to see the Jets get back on track last week, but it wasn’t the most convincing statement I’ve ever seen. Indeed, the Bears are the team that continues to surprise me by finding ways to win on the strength of their very Bears-worthy defense. 10-4 and already NFC North Division champs, perhaps I’ve misjudged them. I’m coming around. I like the Bears, and if Sanchez isn’t playing, look out. BEARS 26, JETS 20.
I expect to see this at least twice on Sunday.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS: If you believe, like I do, that most football games are won in the trenches, by the more physical team, then this is the perfect game upon which to test that theory. The Raiders are big, strong and fast on offense. The Colts are small up front and one of the lowest-ranked run defenses in the entire league. What’s more, the Raiders have been racking up the yardage on the ground, as Darren McFadden has emerged into one of the league’s most explosive threats. I see no reason to believe the Colts are going to be able to stop them. The only question is whether Peyton Manning can put enough points on the board against a Raiders defense that gave up a whole bunch to Jacksonville last week. But here again, the Colts are not going to be able to run the ball against the bigger line of the Raiders, and while Peyton doesn’t hold the ball long enough to get sacked much, I think the Raiders will disrupt his timing often, and hurry him into some of the same poor decisions we’ve seen all year long. I just see this as a bad, bad matchup for the Colts. RAIDERS 33, COLTS 30
NEW YORK GIANTS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS: Aaron Rodgers is back and the Packers are clinging to a playoff dream by a very thin thread. But, as fate would have it, the team at which they are immediately looking up is coming into Lambeau Field this weekend, meaning this one is for a whole bunch of marbles. Eli and the Giants are coming off that devastating come-from-ahead loss to the Eagles, and I’m not at all sure that going on the road to Green Bay with your life on the line is the solution they’re looking for. It’s a pretty even, interesting matchup. Both have offenses capable of explosion and defenses that create sacks and turnovers. But the Packers have the league’s leading scoring defense, and given my choice between Brother Eli and Aaron Rodgers, I’m taking The Chico Kid every day of the week and thrice on Sunday. PACKERS 27, GIANTS 23.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT ST. LOUIS RAMS: Sadly, this game means a ton. The loser is probably out of the race. The winner essentially controls their destiny and the NFC West, because given the chance at a playoff spot the Niners are going to hammer Arizona next week, and St. Louis will have the opportunity to finish off Seattle. The justice-seeker in me really wants the Rams to win this game. They’re at home, they’ve been the most consistent team in the division, and frankly, the Niners deserve nothing. But the Rams have looked a little run down to me the past couple of weeks, and I think the Niners D will show up big in this one. 49ERS 23, RAMS 16.
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THE LEFTOVERS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: You saw what happened to the Vikings last week against the Bears, right? And the Eagles can SCORE, man. Michael Vick is going off on these guys. Adrian Peterson is the Vikings’ only hope. If he plays, he needs to touch it on the regular. EAGLES 35, VIKINGS 20.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: I’m not feeling good about my steady HawkBlogger Podcast prediction that the Seahawks would win the NFC West. I think they’re going down again this week in Tampa. The Bucs are clinging to playoff hopes, too, and they’ll be bitter after giving away a winnable game against Detroit last week. I think LeGarrette Blount gets down again. BUCS 27, SEAHAWKS 23.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: This game actually might be competitive if Wonder Rex shows up again this week. But who the hell would bet on that particular brand of lightning striking twice? Not I. Despite my having stamped them DONE last week, the Jags probably still believe they have something to play for. I think they get the win at home. JAGUARS 24, REDSKINS 20.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS: The Cardinals might be playing worse football than anybody in the league, and the Cowboys are actually playing pretty well under Jason Garrett. This is one of the beat-downs. COWBOYS 38, CARDINALS 20.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: Looks like it’s going to be really cold and perhaps snowy in Cincinnati this weekend, but I do not expect it to hamper Philip Rivers the way it once did Dan Fouts. The Bolts take this one in a walk. CHARGERS 33, BENGALS 17.
TENNESSEE TITANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Kerry Collins and respectability returned to the Titans last week, but I think the Chiefs are for real, and they’re not going down without a fight. I was particularly impressed with the way Matt Cassel got it done last week coming back from his appendix removal. He wasn’t close to 100%, but he managed the game nicely and the Chiefs got another big win. The Titans offer an interesting challenge, but I like what Kansas City is doing. Chiefs win a close one. CHIEFS 24, TITANS 23.
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS: The Browns were strangely competitive the last time out, as Peyton Hillis ran all over the Baltimore D. It’s not happening again. The Ravens are clicking, they’re just now unleashing a fresh Ray Rice on people, and the Browns have been playing poorly as they appear to be folding down the stretch. I have a bad feeling about this. RAVENS 30, BROWNS 17.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT BUFFALO BILLS: Buffalo is game, but they’re going to get handled this week. Big time. PATRIOTS 34, BILLS 20.
DETROIT LIONS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Dolphins should win this game going away, but I think that about them a lot and rarely do they meet my expectations. They did seem to notice last week that Brandon Marshall is a significant weapon, and I hope to see that become a trend for the sake of their long-term fortunes. Too bad it’s already moot in 2010. The Lions got a nice win against the Bucs last week, their first on the road in years. You read that right. I think the Florida double-dip is a bit much to ask from this young squad. DOLPHINS 27, LIONS 20.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT DENVER BRONCOS: What odds do we put on Gary Kubiak resigning in his post-game presser in order to simply stay in Denver and start working on his 2011 Broncos Playbook? TEXANS 38, BRONCOS 17.
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