FANTASY SICKNESS: JERMICHAEL FINLEY HAS NEXT

Let’s play a game. I’ll be Doc Brown, and you be…well, you. Because, let’s be honest here…even at the end of Back to the Future, did you really want to be Marty McFly? I can’t say as how I did. But I digress. You’re you. Now, then…hop into the DeLorean with me while I crank it to 88, dialing all the way back to 2003, when Antonio Gates worked out for the San Diego Chargers after his NBA career was hauled off to prison by the ‘tweener police. I can’t say for sure, because I wasn’t there the first time, but I’d bet we could hear somebody say something along the lines of: “who the hell is that guy!?!?” Now imagine that guy had been playing football all that time instead of hoops. Now make him taller and a shade faster. Now put a green jersey with #88 on it, and…VOILA! Ladies and gentlemen, may I present to you Mr. Jermichael Finley, the ultimate culmination of what was once the Antonio Gates Experiment.

I’m hearing a lot in fantasy football circles about how Finley is being overrated and overvalued in  fantasy drafts. Now, I’m not sure what all that means, but I’ll be just fine being the guy who overvalues him, thank you very much. My reasons are these:

1.  Aaron Rodgers is my #1 quarterback for the 2010 fantasy football season. He’s an outstanding quarterback in a pass-heavy offense with weapons galore. Now, you may reasonably have him lower than 1, but if you have him lower than 5 you’re just stubborn, and therefore shall benefit no further from my wisdom. Move along.

2.  Aaron Rodgers loves him some Jermichael Finley (and what young quarterback wouldn’t like a monster like that splitting the seam wide open?). During 2009 training camp, Rodgers called Finley “unguardable.”  After opening the season as the #2 to Donald Lee, Finley gained Rodgers’ trust and led the Packers in targets over the final 8 games of 2009. In other words, he has become an elite quarterback’s security blanket. Fantasy gold.

Maybe this is what LeRoy Butler meant...

3.  I defy you to find a more impossible red zone cover in the National Football League. You can’t. I quote LeRoy Butler: “When you get to the 20-yard line, that’s when No. 88 should get every ball. Jermichael Finley is a bad matchup for every defensive back and linebacker in the National Football League.” LeRoy was a safety, by the way. He would know.

4.  Finley’s 2009 would have already convinced you had he not been held out of three games with a knee injury. It might have been a bit of a kid gloves situation, but can you really blame them? They were scoring plenty without him and he’s a big part of their future. No need to risk it with a knee. But look at those numbers, nonetheless. Over the final seven games, he caught 38 passes for 416 yards and four touchdowns, a 16-game pace of roughly 87-951-10. And he finished it off with 6 catches for 159 yards on Adrian Wilson in the NFC divisional round. If Adrian Wilson can’t hang with him, the vast majority of safeties in the league are in deep, deep trouble (see point no. 3, above).

…or maybe it was this…

5.  He’s a supremely gifted athlete who is working at the game. “In the OTAs he had the least amount of mental errors of anybody. He’s applying himself. He knows the offense. He’s not comfortable getting by on talent alone. He wants more,” said Packers Tight Ends Coach Bob McAdoo (Can he still shoot it, I wonder?).  “What’s exciting about him, he gets better every week,” said Head Coach Mike McCarthy. Presumably, then, Finley’s impressive 2009 will be significantly improved upon.

Look, show me all the contrary numbers you want. Tell me about how he hasn’t put up the numbers that a Witten or a Gonzalez have.

You’re right. Until now. The guy is only 23, after all. He passes every test I have, and especially the eye test. Every time I watched the Packers last year, Jermichael Finley jumped off the screen.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers coaching staff have gone out of their way to tell you they see the same thing I do (we’ll go ahead and let them take the credit this time). Draft him and be happy, because in 2010, when it comes to your fantasy

...or was it this?

tight end, you will T.G.I.F….”Thank God It’s FINLEY!!!”

*THIS POST ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED AT THE FANTASY FOOTBALL PHARMACYAND PYROMANIAC.COM.

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BREAKOUT 2010: PIERRE GARCON HAS NEXT IN INDIANAPOLIS

Former first-rounder Anthony Gonzalez is coming back from injury.  Austin Collie has proven that his productivity at BYU was no fluke. Because both can clearly play in this league, there seems to be some debate about which of “Manning’s Minions” will be next to make the leap.  Well, if there’s anything I exist to do, it is to eliminate confusion about quality football play.  Let there be no mistake: Pierre Garcon has next in Indianapolis.

Pierre Garcon Is About To Catch On.

As usual, I offer evidence that is both scientific and artistic (read: anecdotal/ borderline hunchy) in nature.  First, the science. The following are two season stat lines for two separate 2nd-year receivers from the last decade. Have a look.

PLAYER

G (S) Rec. Yards Avg. TD Long

WR 1

16 (7) 49 716 14.6 4 49

WR 2

14 (13) 47 765 16.3 4 66

Wide receiver No. 1 is Reggie Wayne, 2002, his second season in the NFL.

Wide receiver No. 2? Pierre Garcon, 2009. Also his second season.

Garcon was the starter in 13 games last year. Yes, he may have been there as a result of Gonzalez’s injury at the outset, but so what? If I have to explain that this isn’t the first time a player lost a job to injury, you’re probably in the wrong place.  And you’re clearly not a Patriots or 49ers fan. Garcon seized that job with both hands and wrung its neck. The above stats earned him the 35th WR slot in my primary fantasy league as a second year player.  If you believe in the 3rd year WR breakout you should believe in Garcon (of course, as the Sick Linked Pyromaniac explains here, perhaps you shouldn’t believe in the 3rd-year WR breakout as much as you do). It’s going to happen for him.

Two games during the 2009 regular season indicated to me that Garcon had achieved the most important possession possible among NFL wideouts: the trust of a great quarterback.  Peyton Manning does not offer up double-digit targets in a single football game to just anybody.  He did it twice to Pierre Garcon, against the Patriots in week 10 and again versus the Titans week 13.  Then, Garcon caught 11 balls for 151 yards and a touchdown against a red-hot New York Jets defense in the AFC Championship game, and added five more catches for 66 yards and another score in the Super Bowl.

“But wait,” you might reasonably argue, “didn’t Austin Collie put up bigger numbers in 2009?”  Sort of, yes. Collie’s 60/676/7 was impressive, and demonstrates that he too has Manning’s trust, should he be in the game.  And there’s no question that Anthony Gonzalez had gained it prior to his injury, but even at his best I never saw anything out of Gonzalez like I saw out of Garcon in the latter stages of 2009. Pierre Garcon is a better athlete, bigger, faster, stronger and more aggressive than the other two.  I’m believing my eyes here: Garcon is easily the most dynamic of the bunch.

There are plenty of balls to go around with #18 running the show, and the Colts aren’t likely to change that formula any time soon. They’ll keep cycling talented young wide receivers that can run precise routes and develop timing and chemistry with the Captain. But keep your eyes on Garcon in 2010, and you’ll be watching a multi-appearance Pro Bowler make the leap.  Enjoy.

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ALBERT HAYNESWORTH REALLY GRINDS MY GEARS

Just a quick blast here. Generally speaking, I go out of my way to skip the negative stories about NFL players. They’re covered enormously and erroneously enough elsewhere, and I simply don’t have the facts in most cases.  Today, however, I feel I do have sufficient facts and evidence to draw an absolutely correct conclusion. That conclusion? You suck, Albert Haynesworth.

Haynesworth signed one of the largest contracts in sports history a little over a year ago to play football for the Washington Redskins franchise. Since I’m not one to mess with other people’s money too readily, let’s just say this: he’s making a LOT. Compared to almost everybody, including the millionaires in his own profession. He came to camp only after having raised a stink of monumental proportions about playing a position for which he is perfectly suited, and cashing a rather substantial ($20M) bonus check. Now we find out he can’t pass a conditioning test that his entire unit passed easily.  I have no problem with him taking the check, by the way. It was in the deal. Fine. But here’s my problem, though it certainly affects me no more than as a disappointed fan: Mike Golic can apparently pass the test. So can one of the guys over at PFT. You are supposed to be in shape to play football. So, really, what’s the problem here?

Now, maybe that knee is really bothering him. But we’re not hearing much of it. Regardless, I love the NFL in part because it is so demanding that nobody but the ultra-athletically-gifted can hope to merely skate by. Toughness, both mental and physical, is at a premium. There are many stories of guys that work their souls to the bone just to get a chance to maybe cover a kick or two for a 1-15 team. The league is full of professional, hard-working, dedicated men. So, I’ll admit it: It just grinds my gears that a guy like Haynesworth can show up and mail it in and still be effective, conditioning test or not. Whatever else you think of him, he certainly appears to take the game and his gifts completely for granted.  It makes me want to boo him.

So congratulations, Albert Haynesworth! You’ve just won the prestigiousFootballSickness.com Steaming Turd of the Week Award!

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THE T.O. CHRONICLES: THE DIVAS ALWAYS LOSE

We all know the signs of a formerly elite level player who, even though he may be past the “Get On

NFL execs and coaches have seen too much T.O., not enough Terrell Owens.

My Back And I’ll Carry You To The Promised Land” years can still play at a high level and help a team win. His speed seems a little less unbelievable, his game a little less sharp, perhaps his mind a little less interested in a losing situation. Often, this guy finds new life and a strong finish in a more winning-friendly environment where he can be a solid piece of the puzzle rather than the franchise savior. Marcus Allen went to Kansas City and proved to Al Davis that he was still nails, a feat LaDanian Tomlinson will try (and fail) to repeat in New York in 2010.  Corey Dillon in New England is a good example. Neil Smith in Denver. Kurt Warner did it three times and went to a couple of Super Bowls.  I’ve got a billion baseball examples, Paul Molitor sticking out like a sore thumb. His grand finale lasted a decade and got him to Cooperstown.

Aging but still undeniably productive, why then does Terrell Owens find himself an unmarketable free agent just weeks away from NFL training camp?  In a word: Diva. That is what every single evaluator (relevant or otherwise) of football talent sees when he looks at Owens.  After more than a decade of his thoroughly-publicized act, it has become impossible for NFL folks to see Terrell Owens, outstanding professional wide receiver, because his alter-ego, T.O., is always Vaudeville-ing around like a buffoon and getting in the way, diverting attention from all the rampant productivity.

I can only assume, therefore, that they believe as I do and as Mike Singletary so succinctly put it when calmly discussing an unfortunate Vernon Davis incident.  You just can’t win with guys who aren’t wholly committed to the team-first concept.  Sure, you can get to a title game and a Super Bowl.  But if your go-to guy is a disruption, you are in deep trouble when you get there, because most likely the team you play will have all oars on their spaceship paddling in unison.  Or something like that.

Look back at the last 30 years.  See any Super Bowl Champions whose alpha dog was a certifiable T.O.-style diva? I don’t. Remember, now, that having off the field issues is not the same thing.  Some would no doubt argue that The Playmaker qualifies. Michael Irvin was an occasional distraction, but you would never have caught him dead publicly criticizing his pro bowl quarterback or openly shouting down his coaching staff on the sideline or intentionally making a spectacle of himself by doing sit-ups amidst a media throng in the driveway of his home.  It’s the little things, you see. And it’s important to note that T.O. is squeaky-clean off the field, which only amplifies the point.  Productive.  No off-the-field trouble.  If you have those two traits but no contract, you’re either overvaluing yourself financially or…you are considered locker room cancer.

Probably both are present here, along with teams wanting to get a longer look at younger talent on hand before committing the 2010 season to everything that goes along with T.O.  But it’s not like we’re in March, here.  T.O.’s numbers from last year on a brutal Buffalo offense warrant some attention from teams needing quality receiving help, and there are a lot of those teams.  You mean to tell me the Chargers couldn’t use T.O. on the field with the Vincent Jackson issue looming, or that the Browns don’t need a reliable veteran to take the pressure off youngsters Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie?  Or that the Patriots wouldn’t have signed him 3 different times in the last decade if he weren’t a problem child?

T.O. made his own bed, with a little help from a media monster he doesn’t understand half as well as he thinks he does and which offers him both edges of the sword at all times.  And he’s going to get his just desserts as a result, almost certainly retiring without a Super Bowl ring and a Hall of Fame bubble case who on the numbers should be a first-ballot entry.  Pay attention, young bucks (I’m looking at you, CJ2K and DeSean).  To paraphrase the Big Lebowski: “The Divas Always LOSE!!!!”

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AGAIN WITH THIS?

"Somebody Throw Me A Bone, Here!"

One of the primary reasons I choose to write about football is that I think it is a sport that brings out the best in men.  Football encourages and enhances admirable character attributes, and its participants make countless significant contributions to our communities that go relatively unnoticed.  I believe those with the loudest bullhorns do a lousy job of articulating these concepts, and it is partially with that in mind that I founded this site.  So, it is with no measure of joy but rather my distaste for hypocrisy that I must ask the following question:

What the hell are you guys doing?!?

It is bad for any business, but particularly those with multi-billion-dollar television contracts, to have its key employees committing crimes or engaging in obviously self-destructive, or worse, community-endangering, behavior.  And as much as I wish it weren’t so, the NFL has a serious problem on its hands. If you run a business, is it good that your workforce inspires clever ideas about smartphone applications that track your employees’ criminal exploits? No. No, it isn’t.

I’ll be the first to concede that sometimes these things get overblown in a world of non-stop media.  For instance, if Vince Young isn’t Vince Young, that little incident in the strip club doesn’t even make the local freebie paper police blotter. And probably was instigated by some loser looking to challenge a big-time NFL baller. Fair enough.  But, here’s my point: If you’re Vince Young, don’t you need to know these things going in? Look, I don’t pretend to know what it’s like to be a professional athlete, or to be able to relate to the kinds of pressures they face as a result of both their job and the high profile that comes with it.  But I can say with supreme confidence that none of these things would ever happen to me, because I just wouldn’t put myself in that position.  If I’m an NFL player, my outlook is plain and simple: nobody gets an opportunity to rip my golden ticket. Period.

The two most egregious befowlers of the NFL landscape in recent years have been Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick.  Both possessing elite on-the-field talent, each has shown a shocking inability to behave even halfway responsibly off the field.

I am all for second chances. But if you’re Michael Vick, what the hell are you doing still hanging out with felon co-defendants from the dogfighting fiasco and throwing public nightclub birthday parties? If you’re Big Ben, what the hell are you doing getting anywhere near a bar in a small Georgia college town?  ”What,” I can already hear the voices asking, “do you expect them to do? Lock themselves away in their homes and never go out?”  Well, if this is what they are inclined to do when they go out, then I offer you this: “YES.”  Short of that, let me offer you a simple rule to live by, three words that would (if properly heeded) have short-circuited most if not all of these recent incidents: “Don’t be an (idiot).” (P.G. version. I’m sure you’ll figure it out.) Really, how hard is it to do any of the following?

1)  Remove all firearms from your regular travel luggage. You know, since they don’t let you take guns on planes.  Or into airports.  This seems obvious, but is apparently not well established in the Cleveland Browns defensive line meeting room.

2)  If you must see a stripper or score some strange and you’re an NFL player or group of players, may I suggest Dwayne Bowe’s preferred method of acquisition?  ”It’s called ‘importing’.”

3)  If you’ve previously been publicly accused, or worse, convicted of a criminal activity resulting in or even calling into question the possibility of your incarceration, try re-thinking every decision you make from now on at least twice before acting on it.

I sense the laughter out there, but I’m not joking. How many times do you think you can trot Tony

Dungy or Donovan McNabb or the next sucker out there to vouch for your character?  At some point, we have no choice but to conclude you’ve been exhibiting your true character all along.

Commissioner Goodell has made it clear that protecting the NFL brand is of critical importance to him.  I believe he is doing the right thing by levying what I consider to be fairly significant penalties against guys that screw up in unacceptable ways.  I like that he did not allow Big Ben to skate free just because he wasn’t convicted in a courtroom.  There is nothing wrong with holding people to a standard higher than the mere civility required by the law.

But I also assumed, apparently incorrectly, that players would take note and adjust their behavior accordingly. It certainly appears that in a number of cases the cliche of the young, coddled athlete who believes he is immortal is dead on.  It would be a shame should it come to this, but if things like the above continue, some unfortunate player will force the Commissioner’s hand.  Nobody wants this. The Commish would no doubt prefer to stay home and kick it with Skinner and the kids.  But Goodell will eventually have no choice but to lay the ultimate smackdown on someone and ban them from the NFL forever.

So, before it comes to that…Please, guys.  Enough already.


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